Built from 27 disclosed trades across 11 tickers · last refreshed 5/19/2026
| # | Ticker | Company | Conviction | Cross-check | Buy / Sell | Disclosed volume | Last action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GOOGL | Alphabet | 1.81 | single source | 4 / 1 | $2.3M–7.5M | buy 1/16/2026 |
| 2 | AMZN | Amazon | 1.59 | ✓ verified | 3 / 1 | $1.9M–6.8M | buy 1/16/2026 |
| 3 | NVDA | NVIDIA | 1.50 | ✓ verified | 3 / 1 | $1.6M–6.3M | buy 1/16/2026 |
| 4 | TEM | Tempus AI | 0.94 | single source | 2 / 0 | $100K–200K | buy 1/16/2026 |
| 5 | AB | AllianceBernstein Holding | 0.91 | ✓ verified | 1 / 0 | $1.0M–5.0M | buy 1/16/2026 |
Conviction = signed sum of pick weights. Each weight = source legitimacy (STOCK Act / OGE filing = 1.0) × recency (9-month half-life) × disclosed size (log-scaled) × cross-check confidence (verified 1.0 / single-source 0.6 / disputed 0.25). Buys add, sells subtract.
Nancy Pelosi is a former U.S. Representative (D-CA) and former Speaker of the House who is exiting Congress at the end of her current term. Her portfolio activity is tracked via STOCK Act Periodic Transaction Reports (PTRs), which legally mandate disclosure of trades made by members of Congress and their spouses — in this case, trades are predominantly attributed to her husband Paul Pelosi, a San Francisco venture capitalist. Her most recent PTR, filed January 23, 2026, disclosed more than $10 million in cumulative transactions spanning late December 2025 through mid-January 2026.
The disclosed portfolio exhibits a signature strategy of purchasing deep-in-the-money LEAP call options on mega-cap technology names — typically struck 1–2 years out — then exercising them into shares at a substantial discount to prevailing market prices, functioning as a leveraged directional bet rather than a passive holding strategy. Position sizing is aggressive, with individual disclosed transactions ranging from hundreds of thousands to tens of millions of dollars, and the largest stakes concentrated in a handful of high-conviction mega-cap tech names. Recent filings reveal a deliberate broadening into AI-adjacent themes: AI infrastructure (NVDA, AVGO), AI healthcare (TEM), and AI-linked power generation (VST), alongside a new large financial-services position in AllianceBernstein. The portfolio also shows periodic repositioning — late December 2025 saw heavy trimming and full exits (AAPL reduction, PYPL and DIS fully closed), some via donation to a donor-advised fund rather than outright sale. Turnover is episodic rather than constant: long quiet periods punctuated by concentrated transaction clusters.
The disclosed portfolio is overwhelmingly concentrated in large-cap U.S. technology and technology-adjacent sectors, with particular depth in cloud computing, semiconductors, cybersecurity, and AI infrastructure (GOOGL, AMZN, NVDA, AVGO, PANW). Secondary concentration has emerged in AI-enabling themes beyond pure tech: AI-driven healthcare data (Tempus AI), power/energy infrastructure supporting AI compute (Vistra), and asset management (AllianceBernstein).
| Ticker | Conviction | Cross-check | Buy / Sell | Last action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | 1.81 | single source | 4 / 1 | buy 1/16/2026 |
| AMZN | 1.59 | ✓ verified | 3 / 1 | buy 1/16/2026 |
| NVDA | 1.50 | ✓ verified | 3 / 1 | buy 1/16/2026 |
| TEM | 0.94 | single source | 2 / 0 | buy 1/16/2026 |
| AB | 0.91 | ✓ verified | 1 / 0 | buy 1/16/2026 |
| AVGO | 0.64 | single source | 2 / 0 | exercise 6/20/2025 |
| PANW | 0.48 | single source | 3 / 0 | call 2/21/2025 |
| VST | 0.19 | single source | 1 / 0 | exercise 1/15/2025 |
| DIS | -0.76 | ✓ verified | 0 / 1 | sell 12/30/2025 |
| PYPL | -0.79 | ✓ verified | 0 / 1 | sell 12/30/2025 |
| AAPL | -1.06 | ✓ verified | 1 / 2 | sell 12/30/2025 |
## NVDA (NVIDIA) — Disclosure Signal Summary NVDA is the **#1 ranked ticker** in the disclosed PTR data by weighted conviction score, sitting at **+1.57** — the strongest accumulation signal across all 11 names on file. The record shows **3 buy signals vs. 1 sell signal**, with a total disclosed dollar range of **$1.6M–$6.3M** across those transactions. The most recent disclosed action was a **BUY on January 16, 2026**, captured in the PTR filed January 23, 2026. That's a fresh, high-recency signal at the top of the conviction ladder. The pattern here fits the signature LEAP-then-exercise playbook — deep-in-the-money call options purchased well out in time, then exercised into shares. The January 2026 buy came as part of a broader repositioning that also added GOOGL, AMZN, TEM, and AB, suggesting a deliberate rotation *into* AI-infrastructure names after trimming legacy positions like AAPL, DIS, and PYPL in December 2025. NVDA leading that rotation in conviction score is notable. **Applying your sizing ladder:** NVDA is a high-conviction name — I'd read this as a **Confidence 4**, putting you at **3x $500 = $1,500**. NVDA trades above $100/share but well under $300, so standard lot sizing works fine. At ~$130/share (approximate at time of writing — verify current price), $1,500 gets you roughly **11 shares**. At $0.005/share IBKR fixed, that's ~$0.055 in commission — trivially under your 0.3% threshold. --- **Required caveats:** - The January 16 disclosed trade may have executed at a meaningfully different price than today's market — PTR lag can be up to ~45 days, and NVDA moves fast. - All disclosed trades are attributed to **Paul Pelosi** (her spouse), potentially through trusts or managed accounts — not a personal directive from Nancy Pelosi. - The conviction score is a weighted analytical signal, not a return forecast. - As Nancy Pelosi exits Congress in early 2026, **future PTR filings will taper and eventually cease** — the forward utility of this signal stream is diminishing. - This is decision support derived from public disclosures, **not financial advice**.